In the News

USDA Projects Higher Grain Production in 2025/26. According to USDA’s first supply and demand estimates for marketing year (MY) 2025/26 (released February 27), U.S. producers are projected to harvest 15.6 billion bushels (bbu) of corn, 4.4 bbu of soybeans, 1.9 bbu of wheat, and 0.4 bbu of grain sorghum. If realized, the combined volume (22.2 bbu) would be 3 percent above MY 2024/25 levels and match the record (combined) harvest in MY 2016/17—signaling higher transportation demand throughout the next marketing year. Supplies (beginning stocks and new production) of corn, soybeans, and sorghum for fall 2025 are projected at 22.3 bbu—3.1 bbu less than the current (December 2024) storage capacity level. (An estimate of fall wheat stocks is not available.) The projected national storage surplus is 1.2 bbu less than the prior 3-year average, or 28 percent less available. If actualized, the tight storage projection could raise demand for transportation during harvest, at least nationally—though timing (and volumes) will vary widely by State (Grain Transportation Report (GTR), October 3, 2024). On May 12, USDA’s World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report will provide updated MY 2025/26 crop projections.