River challenges could shift shipping demand to Great Lakes
When thinking of grain shipment, the Mississippi River system, ports on the Gulf Coast and the Pacific Northwest often come to mind — locations closest to U.S. agriculture trade partners around the world.
However, the Great Lakes region and its farmers benefit from a unique, efficient shipping trade route from the heartland of America to the Atlantic Ocean: the St. Lawrence Seaway. Despite often being overlooked, the seaway has consistently played a crucial role in global grain trade, reaching from Duluth, Minnesota to Baie Comeau, Québec in Canada.
In 2023, nearly 10.5 million tons of grain — roughly 424 million bushels — was exported through the St. Lawrence Seaway, according to tonnage reports from The St. Lawrence Seaway Management Corporation. The seaway provides a streamlined, direct supply chain for exporters, ensuring quicker transit times and reducing logistical complexity.
“Grain is inspected, elevated into silos and sometimes loaded directly onto a vessel. It doesn’t get any more direct than that—field to vessel with minimal handling,” said Joe Cappel, vice president of business development at the Toledo-Lucas County Port Authority.
Ports like in Toledo are well positioned and close the farmgate. This waterway excels in bulk grain shipments, leveraging the region’s extensive port network.
“Usually, there’s less transloading of the material as well, with Great Lakes ports being closer to the fields,” Cappel said.
Toledo is one of four main U.S. grain ports on the Great Lakes, with The Andersons and Archer Daniels Midland (ADM) at the heart of its operations. Both companies have facilities at the Port of Toledo, supporting grain producers across northwest Ohio. Headquartered in Maumee, The Andersons has a storage capacity of 32 million bushels in the Toledo area, while ADM’s 28 grain silos along the river provide nearly 9.8 million bushels of storage.
“There is a lot of opportunity to do more on the Great Lakes. We are nowhere near our capacity, while these coastal ports are bumping up right against it,” Cappel said.
For Toledo, export numbers typically remain consistent year to year. However, 2023 saw a decline to only 1 million net tons, a 32% decrease from 2022. Data recorded during August 2024 from the Toledo Port Authority shows nearly 182,000 short tons exported, down 67.4% from the same period last year.
Port leadership anticipates much more grain movement out of current storage, given the strong Midwestern supply expected this harvest season. The busiest time for the port is October through December, while Great Lakes shipping is largely halted from Jan. 1 to March 1.
In 2024 so far, the Port of Toledo has seen seven overseas vessels and 259 lake vessels carrying various products, including coal, grain, iron ore, petroleum and dry bulk items, according to Toledo Port Authority.
This month, the Lower Mississippi River (LMR) has faced reduced barge drafts and tow sizes due to low water levels, worsening in October from drought conditions despite high supply across the Corn Belt. According to the USDA, 60% of grain — wheat, soybeans, corn — moves through the Mississippi River via barge, posing a potential threat to future marketing strategies.
According to the National Weather Service, the low-water threshold begins at -5 feet below zero gauge. For the Mississippi River at Memphis, Oct. 28 is predicted to reach -9 feet below the river standard. DTN Ag reports that for each foot the river level decreases, a barge’s cargo must be cut by 200 tons, increasing costs while shipping less freight downriver.
Although no reports have yet emerged, if river terminals stop taking grain, costs could be passed down to farmers, weakening local basis prices for producers.
This challenge may create opportunities for Toledo, raising the question of how the Great Lakes could step in for export officials.
“If exporters ever wanted to switch from shipping containers through coastal or river ports, they could certainly consider bulk shipping through the Great Lakes,” Cappel said.
The open storage availability of the St. Lawrence Seaway is not a new development. In 2022, severe drought on the Mississippi River limited barge routes. At the same time, port strikes along the U.S. East Coast in early October disrupted container shipments of agricultural products.
Great Lakes shipping routes remained unaffected.
Ports like Toledo play a key role, often serving as backups during disruptions, helping relieve congestion at major U.S. ports and adapt to global trade shifts by efficiently rerouting goods. The region faces plenty of global demand, holding capacity and farmers who can meet the demand, said Peter Hirthe, international trade specialist for the St. Lawrence Seaway Development Corporation.
“This year, the demand for U.S. wheat is back up due to its quality,” Hirthe said. “On the U.S. side, we’re up about 55% (exporting) because of significant overseas demand for U.S. wheat.”
And it is not just corn, wheat and soybeans in Toledo anymore. There are shifts to oats, canola, alfalfa and byproducts like distillers’ dried grains and soy meal.
However, high shipping costs, the need for empty container ships to travel into the Great Lakes and domestic demand to crush beans in-state for biofuels present trade-offs. Shipping faces capacity challenges because there aren’t enough empty ships available. Unlike barges on rivers, ships on lakes need to arrive with cargo to transport grain cost-effectively, complicating the search for available vessels, Hirthe explained.
“We really need more ships coming in. It’s really the imports that typically drive the export capacity of the lakes,” Hirthe said. “To take more out, you need more coming in so that the ship is in the lakes and can be filled.”
While shipping rates can be higher, Toledo’s central location offers flexibility. Operators can ship by water, rail to the Gulf or truck domestically, with profitability varying each year.
“We’re trying to grow inbound utilization — more ships — and look for new products and supply chains. With new factories in the Midwest, we could make some of those factories bring in products to support them or more,” Hirthe said.
It’s not just exports to markets in Europe or Northern Africa — agricultural products are also imported into Toledo for local food processing. Great Lakes ports serve as strategic hubs for grain storage between the U.S. and Canada. The Great Lakes provide access to 16 key trade ports in the region, including four that handle grain, with major hubs in Duluth, Minn.; Milwaukee, Wisc.; Oswego, New York; and the Port of Toledo. For example, Mondelez, the largest soft wheat flour mill in North America, located in Toledo, supplies Nabisco bakeries across the continent.
The Toledo-Lucas County Port Authority and St. Lawrence Seaway Development Corp is working to bring shipping capacity to the lakes and companies like the Andersons develop end-user demand. Both could be creating increased opportunity for farmers in northwest Ohio and agriculture trade for the region.
“The local basis price is driven by end-user demand our goal is to build strong opportunities for farmers in our core markets, such as in Northwest Ohio,” said Blake Haudan, vice president of trade and processing for The Andersons. “As demand increases, the Port of Toledo has become more attractive for moving grains through the Great Lakes.”